← リージョナル In Hasuya

Wind SeiryuuTier 1

at リージョナル In Hasuya

decks
8 (9.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
53 27-23-3
overall winrate
53.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.2% avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
51.6% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1387 · median 1394 · range 1123–1553 (8 pilots with an ELO rating)
1025 Q1 1194 Q3 1409 1619
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 12% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Shadowstrike 9.6% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 43.2% -4.4
Water Aetherwing 7.2% 6 4-2-0 66.7% 60.0% 51.3% +0.7
Fire Crux Mage 6.0% 5 4-1-0 80.0% 66.7% 66.3% +9.4
Water Allies 6.0% 0
Water Fractal 6.0% 5 3-2-0 60.0% 55.6% 53.1% +1.8
Fire Oblation 4.8% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 54.3% +3.2
Fire Umbra Guardian 4.8% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 56.0% +3.9
Fire Luxem Assassin 3.6% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 57.4% +5.5
Fire Suited 3.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.5% -15.2
Fire Suzaku 3.6% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 44.9% -3.8
Wind Astra Cleric 3.6% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 30.2% -19.1
Fire Aggro 2.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.4% +18.2
Fire Crux Lorraine 2.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.9% -14.5
Fire Exia 2.4% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 2.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.1% -20.6
Water Genbu 2.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.4% -17.0
Water Umbra Guardian 2.4% 0
Chess 1.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.9% +14.2
Dawn of Ashes 1.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.9% +14.2
Fire Aetherwing 1.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.2% +13.2
Fire Umbra Alice 1.2% 0
Horse and Taxes 1.2% 0
Slimes 1.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.7% -19.7
Water Astra Cleric 1.2% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 52.5% +4.0
Water Astra Diana 1.2% 0
Water Astra Ranger 1.2% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 55.2% +5.0
Wind Allies 1.2% 0
Wind Arcane 1.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 36.9% -20.9
Wind Ciel 1.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.5% -13.7
Wind Merlin 1.2% 0
Wind Razorgale 1.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.6% +5.8
Wind Slice & Dice 1.2% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 38.6% -8.5
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Orb of Sealing +1.00 2 0 0
Resolute Stand +1.00 2 0 0
Reclaim -1.00 0 2 0
Royal Oathguard +1.00 2 0 0
Crystallized Destiny +1.00 2 0 0
Safeguard Amulet +1.00 2 0 0
Innervate Agility +1.00 2 0 0
Aesan Protector +0.50 1 0 1
Longtail Grovesward +0.50 1 0 1
Forest Cake -0.50 0 1 1
Enfeebling Orb -0.50 0 1 0
Sunblessed Gazelle +0.50 1 0 1
Beseech the Winds +0.50 1 0 1
Harness Lightning +0.50 1 0 1
Trained Hawk +0.50 1 0 1
Incapacitate +0.50 1 0 1
Tariff Ring -0.50 0 1 0
Dream Fairy -0.50 0 1 1
Scatter Essence -0.50 0 1 0
Ducal Seal +0.50 1 0 1
Calming Breeze -0.50 0 1 0
Cyclonic Fatestone -0.50 0 1 0
Veiling Breeze -0.50 0 1 0
Winds of Destiny -0.50 0 1 0
Nullifying Lantern +0.50 1 0 0
Fated Keepsake -0.50 0 1 0
Zephyr -0.50 0 1 0
Displace +0.00 1 1 0
Brisk Windtrotter +0.00 1 1 0
Regal Inquisition +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/42777/archetypes/Wind Seiryuu